Are Crowds Wise or Ignorant when Predicting against Point Spreads? It Depends on How You Ask

Simmons, Joseph. P., Leif D. Nelson, Jeff Galak, and Shane Frederick (2008), “Are Crowds Wise or Ignorant when Predicting against Point Spreads? It Depends on How You Ask.” Paper presented at the Behavioral Decision Research in Management conference, San Diego, CA.