Are Crowds Wise or Ignorant when Predicting against Point Spreads? It Depends on How You Ask

Simmons, Joseph. P., Leif D. Nelson, Jeff Galak, and Shane Frederick (2009), “Are Crowds Wise or Ignorant when Predicting against Point Spreads? It Depends on How You Ask.” Paper presented at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making conference, Boston, MA.